The agro climatic resource change in Mongolia and its impact
Azzaya D., Gantsetseg B.
Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia
Keywords: Air temperature, temperature change, crossing date, sum of active temperature, sum of effective temperature, the biological minimum, growth and development of agricultural crops, non-frosted period, temperature higher than 260C, precipitation, soil moisture.
Introduction
At the present climate change is taking much more attention of scientists from different countries of the globe. There is significant change in land cover due to an increasing of anthropogenic forcing, such as desertification and deforestation may affect climate by changing the hydrological cycle and surface energy balance. Therefore we have to better understand the climate change at the regional and global levels and its impact to social and economics.
The vegetation plays an important role in the transfer of matter and energy from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere. Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, and the resulting exchanges of energy and water have a large effect on climate (Sukla & Mintz 1983). A vegetation canopy is characterized by its leaves square, height, development, vegetation cover, leaf orientation angle etc.
One of the most significant sectors of Mongolian economy is agriculture.
Since 1960-s in Mongolia the agriculture has started to develop more intensively and widely. Recently Mongolia has 1.3 million hectares of arable land that can produce environmentally clean and friendly products.
According to above mentioned we have calculated and compared the average air temperature for a year, the cross date, precipitation, soil moisture and their change in the last 30 years in Mongolia in this paper. Also we have tried to do some statistical and time series analyses. This research is based on meteorological and agro meteorological observational data at the stations of Mongolia.
Used data and methods
In the recent study we have used the meteorological and agro meteorological data from 1961 to 2004. In this paper mostly used the time series analyses and statistical methods.
Results
Temperature is one of the mean factors for the growth and development of agricultural crops. Most useful characteristics of temperature are the crossing date, sum of active and effective temperature above the biological minimum of plants.
The annual air temperature has increased by 1.90C in Mongolia for the period from 1940 to 2004 [P.Gomboluudev, IMH, Mongolia].
Firstly, we have analyzed the average air temperature for a year for the period between 1961 and 2004. Due to the annual air temperature warming the crossing date of air temperature through the 00C and 50C in the spring and in the autumn are changed.
The number of days with temperature above 00C and 50C are increasing in the study region. Recently 188-202 days or 51.5-55.3% of a year are days with temperature above 00C in Mongolia. Figure 1 shows the change of days with temperature above 00C. In the last 14 years number of days with temperature above 00C is changed by 3-10 days depending on natural zones and locations.
In the last 14 years the sum of active and effective temperature above the biological minimum is increased by 55-2100C (Fig. 2 & 3) for the growth period in the region. It says that, the heat provision is good for agricultural crops in Mongolia. Due to increasing of active and effective temperature growth period is delayed by 3-10 days.
Fig. 1. Change of days with temperature above 00C.
The number of days with temperature higher than 260C in the period of May-July in Mongolia has increased by 2-7 days.
The duration of non-frosted period in the agricultural regions of Mongolia is increased by 7-27 days in the last 14 years.
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Fig. 2. The change of sum of active temperature above 100C, 1960-1990 & 1991-2004.
Fig. 3. The change of sum of effective temperature above 5оC.
Due to the global warming during the last 14 years amount of precipitation for the growing period has decreased and precipitation amount of the cold period has increased by 5%.
Depending on precipitation amount for the growth period in Mongolia the soil moisture is also decreasing in the last 30 years.
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Fig. 4. The precipitation change, 1960-1990 and 1991-2004.
Conclusions
The air temperature is warming in Mongolia. Due to this warming crossing date of air temperature through the 00C and 50C in the spring and in the autumn are changed. The number of days with temperature above 00C and 50C are increasing in the study region. Recently 188-202 days or 51.5-55.3% of a year are days with temperature above 00C in Mongolia.
In the last 14 years the sum of active and effective temperature above the biological minimum is increased by 55-2100C for the growth period in the region.
The duration of non-frosted period in the agricultural regions of Mongolia is increased by 7-27 days in the last 14 years.
The number of days with temperature higher than 260C in the period of May-July in Mongolia has increased by 2-7 days.
Due to the global warming during the last 14 years amount of precipitation for the growing period has decreased and precipitation amount of the cold period has increased by 5%.
Depending on precipitition amount for the growth period in Mongolia the soil moisture is also decreasing in the last 30 years.
References
1. Climate change and agriculture. Ulaanbaatar. 2002.
2. B.Jambaajamts. Climate of Mongolia. Ulaanbaatar. 1989.
3. Lomas J. Agro meteorology of wheat. Bet-Dagan. 1975. 38 p.
4. Mavi H.S. Introduction to Agrometeology. New Delhi. 1994. 270 p.
5. Martin Parry. Climate change & world agriculture. London. 1990. 135 p.
6. Sinitsina.N.I. Agro climatology.
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